On the one hand, I’ve spent years trying to reconstruct the “inner history” of the Voynich Manuscript: while on the other, I’ve spent the same period trying to deconstruct the subtle fault-lines in its cipher system. History and science: the ultimate epistemological pincer attack, if you will.
In that general vein, here’s a new research angle on the Voynich Manuscript’s cipher to think about, that’s supported on both sides by very specific art historical reasoning and statistical reasoning.
Firstly, the art history. Quite independently of the question of authorship, I recently argued (in my post on Voynich Q13) that Q13b (baths) is to Q13a (something disguised as baths) as Herbal-A (agriculture) is to Herbal-B (something disguised as agriculture). This same relationship may well hold true for the ‘pharmacological’ pages, in that Q19 pharma (visual recipes) may bear the same relation to some or all of Q15 pharma (something disguised as visual recipes).
I have also argued on codicological grounds that the patterns resembling aiiv and aiir we see densely scattered throughout the VMs were intended to resemble medieval folio references, while concealing some other information (probably Arabic numbers). My hypothesis is that this steganography was initially achieved (early in the Currier-A phase) by placing dots over the various aiiv instances, but that the author then decided this was too obvious and so went through the text adding scribal flourishes connecting the right-hand edge of the v-shape to the flying dot. However, by the time of the Currier-B phase, the same aiiv pattern was used as a covertext, but a different kind of steganography was used for the concealed text – here, the overall shape of the final “v” letter seems to have been used as the enciphering mechanism. What I like about this is that it should be able to be tested by a careful spectroscopic scan of the aiiv instances. I suspect that it will be amazing how much you can tell from the evolution of a single pattern across the VMs’ pages.
Put all this together, and what I think emerges is a picture of a cipher system that is evolving across multiple phases – the Currier-A dot phase, perhaps a Currier-A pure loop phase, a Currier-B v-shape phase. Glen Claston has his own ideas on the evolution and gestation of the pages (along broadly similar lines), so this isn’t really massive news on its own.
Secondly, the statistics. Since Prescott Currier proposed his two-language (Currier A and Currier B) model in 1976, it is sadly true that far more people have picked up on what this “split” might imply than have tried to actually statistically analyze it in a deeper way. What are those differences, though?
- -dy: rare in A, very common in B
- chol-, chor-, and chot-: very common in A, rare in B
- cth-: common in A, rare in B
- chain, chaiin: medium frequency in A, rare in B
To which I would add that qol- occurs 20x more often in B than in A, and that if you remove all ol and al pairs, the remaining freestanding ls occur 8x more often in B than in A.
All of which leads to this basic observation: currently, I think that the very best explanation of why the ‘formation rules’ of Currier B differ from the formation rules of Currier A is that I believe that the Voynich’s author evolved the system from A to B not to accommodate another language or dialect, but rather to hide perceived weaknesses in the Currier A cipher system.
This then suggests a new cryptological research angle: if we can statistically identify what specific patterns were removed from Currier A during the transition to Currier B (and perhaps even identify matching patterns that were added to Currier B), then we might, with a little luck, start to work out why the author thought they were weaknesses in the cipher system.
As an example, could it be that many of the instances of ch (or, more likely, cho)in Currier A reappear as freestanding l in Currier B? If so, why did the author evolve Voynichese in this way? Was he hiding a weakness in the cipher system? Did the author judge that the first phase’s cho was unnecessarily verbose, and so came to replace it by the (much more compact) freestanding l in later phases?